WELLINGTON • The success of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in containing New Zealand's coronavirus cases has driven an extraordinary popularity surge that has put the youthful leader on course for a landslide win in September's national election.
The 39-year-old's centre-left Labour Party was up 14 points at 56.5 per cent, a Newshub-Reid Research poll published yesterday found, with her rating as preferred prime minister surging 20.8 points to 59.5 per cent.
The survey also indicated an overwhelming 91.6 per cent backing for Ms Ardern's Covid-19 response, which involved a strict seven-week lockdown that appears to have the virus under control.
Support for the conservative National opposition slumped 12.7 points to 30.6 per cent in the poll, with its leader Simon Bridges on 4.5 per cent as preferred prime ministerdown 6.1 points.
The figures mirror leaked research from Labour's own pollster, UMR, the previous month which had Ms Ardern's party on 55 per cent support and National at 29 per cent.
However, Ms Ardern, who won office on a wave of "Jacinda-mania" in 2017, has said she was making no assumptions about the Sept 19 election. "I'm taking nothing for granted," she told Newshub.
"The fact that I'm making no assumptions about what will be the end outcome on election day should be a nod to that."
Her personal approval rating is comparable to the 65 per cent some surveys gave previous centre-right leader John Key, who won three elections before stepping down in 2016.
The support for Labour will be even more heartening for Ms Ardern, giving the party the chance to govern in its own right for the first time since a German-style proportional voting system was introduced in 1996.
She took Labour from the doldrums in the 2017 election, lifting its vote by nearly 13 points to 36.9 per cent.
However, she still needed support from minor parties to form office and National attracted the most support of any single party with 44.4 per cent.
Ms Ardern had earlier gained international acclaim for her empathetic reaction to the previous year's massacre at two Christchurch mosques, when a lone gunman murdered 51 Muslim worshippers.
However, it was not reflected in polling and, before the pandemic, indications were that Labour's support had plateaued, with Ms Ardern set to struggle in the September election because voters were turning away from her coalition partners.
Whether the latest jump in support can be maintained will depend on the long-term success of her "go fast-go hard" coronavirus strategy.
It appears to be working so far, with New Zealand recording only 21 Covid-19 deaths in a population of five million.
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE