The effectiveness of peace agreements forged with armed groups terrorizing various local government areas in Katsina State appears to be failing in preventing community attacks. Currently, 18 of the state's 34 local government areas have entered into these peace accords with bandits. While some areas benefiting from these deals experience a measure of calm, others continue to face attacks, despite engaging in negotiations with these criminal elements.
Interestingly, local governments that have secured agreements sometimes find respite, but this often shifts the focus of attacks to neighboring areas that have not yet formalized such pacts. This situation has also led to the expansion of bandit activities into bordering states like Kano, creating a cyclical problem. Reports indicate that communities covered by these peace deals frequently see bandits moving freely in and out of towns and villages at will.
The Fragile State of Peace: Unpacking Katsina's Banditry Crisis
Historically, state governments managed such negotiations, but in the current climate in Katsina, local government authorities have taken the lead. The LGAs that have formalized peace deals include Kankara, Kafur, Malumfashi, Funtua, Batagarawa, Charanchi, Sabuwa, Dandume, Faskari, Matazu, Musawa, Safana, Kurfi, Dutsinma, Jibia, Batsari, Danmusa, and Bakori. Additionally, Kankia, Kusada, and Ingawa are reportedly in the process of establishing similar agreements.
Despite these accords, fresh bandit attacks were recorded in October and November in Danjanku (Musawa LGA), Na’alma (Malumfashi LGA), and Bakori LGA. Concurrently, Kusada and Kankia LGAs, which lack peace deals, experienced four significant attacks during the same period.
A leader of the Katsina Elders Forum, Bashir Kurfi, criticized the peace deals, arguing that allowing bandits to dictate terms undermines community security. He recounted an instance where bandits set the meeting terms, including location and attendance, and even delayed their arrival for hours while armed.
In contrast to the local government initiatives, Governor Umar Dikko Radda has consistently rejected negotiating with these groups, asserting he will not engage in talks from a position of weakness. However, the governor's stance has been questioned, particularly since his home local government, Charanchi, recently entered into an agreement with bandits. Efforts to get comments from the state government or Defence Headquarters were unsuccessful.
Meanwhile, the Chief of Air Staff, Sunday Aneke, reiterated the military's commitment to hunting down bandits across Katsina and other North-West states. He emphasized a no-tolerance policy for criminals and terrorists, vowing to find and strike them wherever they hide to restore peace and reclaim territory.
Complexities of Conflict: Why Peace Deals Face Uphill Battles
Residents in communities without peace deals report constant harassment and attacks, while bandits retreat to areas with agreements to enjoy their spoils. However, locals in peace deal areas often feel compelled to accept the agreements, viewing them as the only path to temporary respite and a semblance of normal life. For instance, in Kankara LGA, once a crisis hotspot, some communities report partial peace following the Kakumi pact.
Badamasi Haruna, a resident of Santar Kaku in Kankara, acknowledged a period of ceasefire but noted that attacks still occur in some parts of the local government. He highlighted that even fragile peace is preferable to constant fear, emphasizing the devastating impact of daily attacks on lives and livelihoods before the deals. In Malumfashi and Bakori LGAs, residents complain of renewed attacks despite the Kakumi accord, urging authorities to uphold promises made to the bandits.
Na’alma Alhassan Musa, a youth leader in Malumfashi, confirmed ongoing sporadic attacks. Mahdi Danbinta of Guga community in Bakori welcomed the peace deal but advocated for a uniform agreement across all 34 LGAs. Conversely, security analyst Abubakar Ibrahim predicted the current peace deal would fail, asserting that gains would be temporary and advocating for a full-scale war against the bandits.
The agreements typically involve bandits suspending attacks, unconditionally releasing captives, and providing security to peace-deal communities from rival bandit groups. In return, bandits demand an end to security agency attacks (soldiers, police, Community Watch, vigilantes), unrestricted access to communities (markets, hospitals, schools), and requests for more social amenities like schools, hospitals, and earth dams from the government.
Many residents are perplexed by bandits returning to the bush armed and continuing attacks despite agreements. A key reason for continued violence is the fragmented nature of bandit groups in Katsina and neighboring states, operating under multiple leaders with varying interests, leading to internal rivalries and shifting alliances.
This fragmentation means an agreement with one group doesn't bind others. Attacks reported post-peace meetings, such as those in Danjanku and Gandun Sarki, killing a police officer and another person, were often carried out by factions not involved in or opposed to the peace process. When one bandit cluster signs a truce, hostile groups may cross into nearby communities without agreements, engaging in rustling and kidnapping.
The situation is worsened by rival groups using the "peace" cover to move freely and launch surprise attacks elsewhere. Thus, ongoing violence may not signify betrayal by signatories but rather the complex, fragmented nature of bandit networks. Even bandits who participate in peace processes face threats from their own kind, labeled as "traitor. This explains their reluctance to surrender weapons, as disarming makes them vulnerable not only to security forces but also to rival factions. Communities signing peace agreements are often exposed if other hostile groups refuse to comply, and repentant bandits remain in hiding, unable to fully reintegrate.
A Call for Consolidated Action: Securing the North-West Region
Despite the shortcomings, residents prioritize these peace agreements over a complete absence of security, given the extensive destruction, loss of livelihoods, and displacement. Farmers are gradually returning, schools reopening, and markets reviving in areas where attack frequency has declined, such as Jibia, Batsari, Safana, Danmusa, Bakori, Funtua, Malumfashi, Kafur, and Kankara.
Masa’udu Sa’idu Kankara, a resident, stated that peace, however fragile, is the only option after losing everything and enduring endless attacks. Abdulrahman Abdullahi, Chairman of the Coalition of Civil Society Organisations in Katsina State, echoed this, calling the peace deal a last resort after exhausting all other avenues, including appeals to the Presidency under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for federal security intervention.
The recent resurgence of attacks in northern and southern Katsina State highlights flaws in the process, particularly allowing armed bandits at negotiating tables. Bandits, in turn, complain that local governments are not honoring terms, specifically the release of their members from jail in exchange for freeing captives. Communities, however, demand a total ceasefire, which remains elusive.
Hassan Dogon Faci of Batsari LGA commended local authorities' commitment and resilience in sustaining the peace deals, attributing current peace to political will from all sides and repentant bandits adhering to agreements. Auwali Mai shayi Safana noted real peace in Safana LG, crediting local authorities for reintegrating repentant bandits and appointing "Ardos" (respected elderly Fulani leaders) to maintain order and report breaches.
A traditional ruler suggested state government ownership of the deals for better monitoring and implementation. Security expert Major Ibrahim Yahaya Shinkon (rtd) stressed prioritizing victims over bandits. The Katsina State government supports these efforts through its State Peace and Security Strategy, backing community-based talks and development interventions.
Since 2017, at least eight states (Katsina, Kaduna, Benue, Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi) have entered peace deals with armed groups in northern Nigeria. While some succeeded temporarily, security often relapsed. Former Katsina governor Aminu Bello Masari abandoned peace talks in 2020 after bandits breached agreements.
The current situation is not inspiring hope, with banditry spreading to more LGAs like Dutsinma, Kurfi, Batagarawa, Kaita, Kafur, and Malumfashi. Recent attacks have hit Doguwar Dorawa, Layin ‘Yannehu, Ganjar, Alhazawa, Gidan Nagari (Bakori LGA), Danjanku (Musawa), and Na’alma (Malumfashi), despite existing deals. Communities in Kankia and Kusada LGAs have seen a surge in attacks, linked by experts to peace deals in neighboring areas.
Faruruwa community in Shanono LGA, Kano State, bordering Musawa LGA of Katsina, was recently attacked, leading to casualties and displacement. Zamfara State also experiences sustained bandit presence due to peace deals in Jibia, Danmusa, Kankara, and Faskari LGAs of Katsina. Experts advise continued engagement with all bandit factions, expanded confidence-building, and strengthened intelligence to isolate criminals. They also emphasize government firmness, ensuring peace doesn't lead to impunity.