According to a new report released by the World Bank, Angola's capital, Luanda, is projected to displace Lagos as the most populous urban centre in Sub-Saharan Africa by the year 2050. The comprehensive analysis indicates a substantial 78 per cent increase in Luanda's population.
The report's estimations detail that Luanda's population is expected to surge from 11.4 million in 2025 to an impressive 20.3 million by 2050. In contrast, Lagos is predicted to experience growth from 12.8 million to 16.2 million over the identical period. This demographic shift is anticipated to significantly alter the current ranking of the largest cities across the region.
Specifically, the World Bank's findings highlight: "The population of Angola's capital city, Luanda, is projected to increase by 78 percent from 11.4 million to 20.3 million. Luanda will overtake Lagos as Sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous city."
Despite losing its top position, Lagos is still expected to undergo substantial growth. The report further notes: "Nevertheless, Lagos’s population will still swell by more than 25 percent, from 12.8 million to 16.2 million, between 2025 and 2050." This ensures that Lagos will maintain its status as one of Sub-Saharan Africa's premier urban hubs.
Current and Future Urban Landscape
The World Bank report also provided a list of the top 15 most populous cities in Sub-Saharan Africa for 2025. These include:
- Lagos (Nigeria)
- Luanda (Angola)
- Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of Congo)
- Dar es Salaam (Tanzania)
- Johannesburg (South Africa)
- Khartoum (Sudan)
- Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)
- Abidjan (Côte d’Ivoire)
- Nairobi (Kenya)
- Onitsha (Nigeria)
- Accra (Ghana)
- Yaoundé (Cameroon)
- Kampala (Uganda)
- Kano (Nigeria)
- Cape Town (South Africa)
Looking ahead to 2050, the World Bank projects that while 13 of these cities will retain their positions in the top 15, the overall ranking will shift considerably. The projected top 15 most populous cities in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050 are:
- Luanda (Angola)
- Lagos (Nigeria)
- Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of Congo)
- Dar es Salaam (Tanzania)
- Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)
- Abidjan (Côte d’Ivoire)
- Khartoum (Sudan)
- Johannesburg (South Africa)
- Onitsha (Nigeria)
- Yaoundé (Cameroon)
- Nairobi (Kenya)
- Kampala (Uganda)
- Accra (Ghana)
- Mogadishu (Somalia)
Emerging Urban Giants and Declining Ranks
The report specifically identifies Bamako in Mali and Mogadishu in Somalia as two cities expected to enter the top 15 by 2050. Bamako’s population is forecast to grow by 80 per cent, increasing from 4.2 million in 2025 to 7.6 million in 2050. Similarly, Mogadishu is predicted to experience a 64 per cent rise, from 4.4 million to 7.2 million.
Conversely, Kano in Nigeria and Cape Town in South Africa are projected to fall out of the top 15 rankings, despite anticipated population increases of 36 per cent and 31 per cent respectively. This indicates a broader regional growth trend impacting the relative sizes of these major urban centres.