There are other points of tension. NATO allies have made no secret of their frustration with Bidenโs decision to withdraw forces from Afghanistan unconditionally by Sept. 11, for example. Several NATO members also worry about Turkeyโs drift away from the alliance and democratic norms, making Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoฤan the focus of the most important bilateral meetings of the day, with Biden, and also Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. โIt's no secret that we've big differences with Turkey,โ Mitsotakis told France24.
Itโs not all hyper-serious military business, though. Brusselsโ famous Manneken Pis war trophy has a new outfit for the day.
If G-7 was about containing China, is it fair to say the NATO summit is more about containing Russia?
Anita Kumar, White House Correspondent & Associate Editor:
Thatโs fair, Ryan. At least from the U.S. perspective. NATO will address several topics โ Afghanistan, cybersecurity, among others โ but the attention is going to be on Russia and its aggressions. Biden aides say the president will be going into his meeting with Putin in a position of strength in part because heโs coming from NATO where he'll be seeking advice and support for his meeting. Back home, Biden is being criticized for holding the meeting now but the White House thinks itโs a good time because it follows NATO.
Rym Momtaz, senior correspondent, France:
Jens Stoltenberg, NATO's secretary general, doesnโt see it that way. He told newsmen this morning he sees China everywhere: โinvesting heavily in new military capabilities, including nuclear capabilities, and also more advanced weapon systems,โ adding China is investing โin cyberspace, we see them in Africa, in the Arctic,โ Stoltenberg said. โWe also see China investing heavily in our own critical infrastructure and trying to control it.โ But he stated that shouldnโt stop NATO members from constructive discussions โon issues like climate change and arms control.โ
Ryan Heath, Global Translations author:
Today is much more about Russia than the G-7 summit was. Russia is Europeโs biggest neighbor, and it invaded Ukraine, which wants to be both a NATO and EU member. Several suspect Belarus is next, and Baltic countries fear they could be after Belarus. When you read about rising cyber crime: you donโt have to look far from the Kremlin to find out why.
How much are we going to hear concerning the infamous 2 percent target?
Nahal Toosi, foreign affairs correspondent:
Iโm going to guess that the United States will raise the issue of whether NATO members are spending 2 percent of GDP on defense more than several expect. It might be behind closed doors โ It wonโt be like the Donald Trump years of highly visible complaints that, say, Germany โowesโ the U.S. money, which isnโt how it works. But Biden and his aides are familiar with the fact that several NATO countries still donโt meet the 2 percent threshold and the message that sends to the American public. Biden will commit to Article 5 (the mutual self-defense provision) regardless, unlike Trump, who wavered on it.
Kumar: Totally agree with Nahal. U.S. officials say Biden will raise the issue but they will do so privately. As world leaders are beginning to find out, Trump and Biden don't always disagree on policy, sometimes itโs about their style. Biden has quickly returned policymaking and diplomacy back to normal, the way most countries are used to, and that means things will be said behind closed doors.
Andy Blatchford, Canada correspondent:
Count Canada among alliance members criticized by Trump at past NATO summits for not pumping a big enough percentage of its GDP into military expenditures. (Trumpโs complaints created tension among the leaders โ you might recall that Trump called Justin Trudeau โtwo-facedโ at the 2019 summit after the prime ministerโs hot mic moment.) Canadian insiders say they expect this yearโs summit to be less concerning the money and more concerning the future of the alliance after a challenging four-year stretch. That would be a relief for Ottawa. Expect Canada to also argue that itโs been significantly increasing its defense spending and its contributions to NATO. For example, the official says between 2014 and 2021, Canada expanded its permanent presence in NATO by more than 20 percent.
Hans von der Burchard, politics reporter, Brussels:
The NATO civilian leadership runs a two-sided message that NATO members must keep investing more, but also that theyโre on the right track. Stoltenberg said this morning โwe now had seven consecutive years of increased defense spending across Europe and Canada,โ and โIโm also confident that NATO leaders will agree to invest more together, to meet our high level of ambition.โ
What do you make of the subtle pivot to China that the NATO leadership is pushing?
David M. Herszenhorn, chief Brussels correspondent:
Itโs needed. Against China, defense experts say, several European militaries would be utterly useless. โEuropean forces arenโt ready to fight with the equipment they have,โ analysts from the Center for American Progress, a progressive think tank close to the White House, wrote in a recent report. โAnd the equipment they have isnโt good enough.โ These are big problems for any "pivot to China" โ the report also went on to say โEurope lacks capabilities like air-refueling for fighter jets, transport aircraft for troops, and high-end reconnaissance and surveillance drones,โ which are all essential for long-distance military operations.
Heath: Stoltenberg is canny. He both sees the China threat and knows that keeping the U.S. close and off his back means stepping up on China. Biden and Stoltenberg will get their way in the end, but not without a fight. France doesnโt believe NATO should expand its purview beyond its founding transatlantic mandate, while Eastern Europe countries and the Baltics want the focus to remain on Russia. The best way to square that circle would be to invest more everywhere. Luckily, weโre in an era of multitrillion-dollar fiscal expansion.
What are other NATO members going to do about Turkeyโs drift away from the alliance mainstream?
Toosi: When I ask people about this, Iโm told that, for a variety of reasons, no one wants Turkey out of NATO. But thereโs serious concerns about Ankaraโs long-term outlook. If there is a creative way to resolve issues like what to do with Turkeyโs purchased S-400 air defense system from Russia (place it under joint U.S.-Turkish custody?) it still seems far from reality. Iโm keeping an eye on Turkeyโs role in Afghanistan in particular. There are reports that Turkey is considering offering to keep guarding the Kabul airport in exchange for the U.S. letting it off the hook for the S-400s.
Kumar: Glad you mentioned Turkey, Ryan. Itโs really getting overshadowed by China and Russia but when talking to current and previous U.S. officials they mention Turkey as one of the biggest issues facing NATO. Itโs why Biden is having a bilateral meeting with Erdoฤan on Monday. The two leaders have known each other for years but it will be their first as presidents. Itโs likely to be a tense meeting because it follows Biden infuriated Turkey by declaring as โgenocideโ the Ottoman-era mass killing and deportations of Armenians. Previous presidents, including Barack Obama, avoided the term because they didnโt want to complicate relations with Turkey.
Thanks for joining us for this NATO summit preview โ weโll be back with takeaways from the event this afternoon.