In addition to raising the most money, McAuliffe and Herring also have the backing of a majority of the commonwealth’s most powerful leaders. The first Black state Senate president pro tem, L. Louise Lucas, and state House Majority Leader Charniele Herring (no relation to the attorney general) have served as surrogates for both McAuliffe and Herring, helping shore up support among the state’s Black voters, who represent more than one-fourth of the Democratic primary electorate.
“We didn’t do what we should’ve done to clear the way for women candidates,” said Krysta Jones, founder of the group Vote Lead Impact, which trains and supports Black candidates running for office in Virginia. “It’s nearly like getting society ready.”
In the race’s final weeks, a number of groups that were reluctant to back one of the Black candidates over another ultimately took sides in the race, largely throwing their money and connections behind McClellan or Carroll Foy rather than Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax, whose past s3xual assault allegations were an anchor to his campaign.
But their support hasn’t been enough to counter McAuliffe’s machine and reputation. The previous governor maintains a near-40-point lead over the rest of the field, according to Roanoke’s polling. He’s also raised $12.8 million — more than the rest of the field combined.
Democrats’ lieutenant governor race is a little more complicated. While Rasoul would not bring gender diversity to the ticket, he would be the commonwealth’s first Muslim statewide official. He has consolidated support among state and national progressives, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and previous state Attorney General Mary Sue Terry, the first — and, so far, only — woman elected to statewide office in Virginia history.
Ayala, an Afro-Latina state legislator, had a slight lead over Rasoul, according to the Roanoke poll, though no candidate broke even 20 percent in the lower-profile race. She has the backing of Lucas, Herring and Gov. Ralph Northam, as well as national groups like EMILY’s List and Higher Heights. But some progressives have pushed back on her candidacy: She came under fire when she accepted $100,000 from the unpopular utility company Dominion Energy, from which she originally pledged not to take money.
By contrast, Virginia Republicans — who held a low-turnout, party-run primary the previous month — are running a diverse statewide ticket beyond Youngkin. Their lieutenant governor nominee, Winsome Sears, is a Black woman, and their attorney general candidate, Jason Miyares, is a Latino man of Cuban descent.
Democrats, however, have rejected the comparison, stating that representation alone means nothing if the policies they are promoting do nothing to help their communities.
Quentin James, president of the Collective PAC, which supports Black candidates running for office at all levels, described “structural barriers” to breaking through as a person of color running for statewide office for the first time.
“We're still very much dealing in a world that doesn't want to reckon with race,” James said. “Virginia has a long way to go along with most of the other states in the country in terms of electing people of color, electing women, electing young people, electing LGBTQ people.”
Even as McAuliffe built an early lead for governor, Jones' bid to derail Herring — who is trying to become the first Virginia attorney general to win a third term — appeared more promising. Jones was endorsed by Northam, and his campaign points to the large number of undecided voters as evidence that he remains within striking distance of Herring.
Like Northam, Herring was tied up in the 2019 blackface scandals that roiled Virginia politics. He admitted to wearing blackface as an undergraduate at a party at the University of Virginia roughly 40 years ago.
Jones criticized Herring’s timing on enacting police reform while in office, arguing that doing so on the heels of a national reckoning on systemic racism and police violence was more politically convenient than genuine.
“It doesn't seem like Mark was devoted to civil rights until the blackface incident a couple of years ago,” Jones said, adding that he "understands those challenges viscerally" as a Black man.
If McAuliffe and Herring do win on Tuesday, Jeff Bourne, a state delegate supporting McClellan for governor, said several people he knows would feel let down.
“We’d have missed an opportunity to put forth a face that reflects Virginia,” he said. “I think folks would be disappointed.”