VIENNA — Iran nuclear deal negotiators are ending the week unexpectedly back in their home countries, with talks stuck over several central points of contention.
Still, as officials departed, several stressed the U.S. and Iran could soon find common ground and forge a path back to compliance with a 2015 agreement that curbed Tehran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief.
Negotiators have produced at least 20 pages of text with various options on how to solve the remaining hurdles. Among them are a dispute over how to handle Iran’s advanced centrifuges, the machines used to enrich uranium, as well a disagreement over whether inspectors have sufficient access to Iran’s nuclear sites. The U.S. and European powers are also pushing to include a mention of follow-on talks that would address Iran’s ballistic missile program and broader regional behavior.
Sanctions are another long-running point of contention. The U.S. and Iran still can’t agree on which ones the U.S. will repeal.
Meanwhile, Iran wants guarantees the U.S. won’t abandon the deal — again. The agreement has been on life support since previous U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out in 2018.
How much of a barrier these disputes pose to a final agreement seems to depend on who’s talking.
Enrique Mora, the European Union official overseeing the negotiations, told newsmen on Wednesday he was “sure” a deal would be struck at the next round of talks, expected to start on June 10.
“I hope that it will not take tons of time to have an agreement,” he said.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi shared this positive assessment, telling Iranian broadcaster IRIB that “the next round of the talks in Vienna logically could, and should be, the final round.”
The upbeat atmosphere between both diplomats was visible as they chatted amiably in front of the Grand Hotel in Vienna before departing.
Yet senior diplomats from Britain, France and Germany were more cautious. “We've continued to make progress and important parts of a future deal have now been fleshed out, but the most difficult decisions lie ahead,” they said in a statement.
Similarly, Ned Price, the spokesman for the U.S. State Department, said on Thursday that the U.S. was “clear-eyed about its objectives” and that “there’s just about every expectation there will be subsequent rounds” beyond the upcoming sixth round, contradicting Mora’s more optimistic outlook.
Finding a way back
Negotiators from the remaining parties to the deal — Iran, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany — together with the European Union as coordinator, have been working off and on in Vienna for nine weeks to resurrect the original agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The process has required negotiators to craft a step-by-step plan that details reciprocal measures for Tehran and Washington to each take. Basically, Iran will have to roll back recent nuclear program advances — made after the U.S. pulled out of the deal — in exchange for widespread U.S. sanctions relief.
This week’s fifth round of talks produced more clarity on those steps. Yet work remains, particularly on the sequencing of those steps.
In addition, Iran is still demanding the U.S. repeal all of its Iran sanctions — not just those Trump immediately reimposed after leaving the deal, but also the additional penalties he implemented afterwards. The U.S. has rejected this “maximalist” position and wants to retain some sanctions that are not directly related to the JCPOA, such as those tied to human rights abuses or terrorism.
Iran and the U.S. are also at odds over Tehran’s advanced centrifuges, which the country has used in recent years to enrich uranium beyond the limits allowed in the original deal. Iran prefers not to destroy them, but European powers and the U.S. argue that just mothballing them will not be enough.
Ensuring compliance
Access is another complicating factor looming over the talks.
Since February, Iran has been limiting the ability of inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to review its nuclear facilities.
In a confidential report, seen by a news outlet, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told IAEA member states “the Agency’s verification and monitoring activities have been affected as a result of Iran’s decision to stop the implementations of its nuclear-related commitments.”
Inspectors have had their daily access to Iran’s main nuclear plants in Natanz and Fordow curbed and have not had access to the data and recordings collected by some of their equipment, among other things, the report said. Without full IAEA access to Iran’s nuclear sites and oversight of its nuclear activities, the verification of a step-by-step plan will be impossible.
Missiles and stability
A separate point of tension is whether Iran will agree to follow these nuclear talks with another round of negotiations over separate behaviors Western countries have long criticized.
In particular, the U.S. and European powers have honed in on Iran’s ballistic missile program and its backing of militant groups across the region.
Negotiators are currently discussing whether to include a reference in the nuclear agreement to follow-on talks to cover these activities. The U.S. and its European partners are pushing for such a reference, but it’s unclear if Iran will concede.
Iran, for its part, wants guarantees from the U.S. that Washington (or any other country) will never leave the JCPOA again.
Both demands will have to be reconciled, which is particularly difficult since they were not part of the original 2015 agreement.
A secret nuclear program?
Nuclear negotiators aren’t the only ones coming back to Vienna next week. The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors will also meet to discuss the recent IAEA reports on Iran.
The agency’s quarterly report said that Iran had produced 2.4 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, which is close to weapons grade. And Iran’s total stockpile of enriched uranium has now reached approximately 3.241 kilograms — 16 times higher than permitted under the JCPOA.
The board will also discuss another confidential report that details the presence of decades-old uranium particles at several locations in Iran, a series of findings that most recently spilled into the public eye in February. Iran’s critics say the traces could be an indication that Iran had a secret nuclear weapons program in the past. Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful.
“After several months, Iran has not provided the necessary explanation for the presence of the nuclear material particles at any of the three locations where the Agency has conducted complementary accesses,” said the report, seen by a news outlet.
The mystery “seriously affects the ability of the Agency to provide assurances of the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme,” the report added.
Despite this sobering assessment, two diplomats involved in the talks, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told a news outlet they did not expect the IAEA meeting would derail the nuclear talks, as the board would likely refrain from passing a resolution against Iran.