WASHINGTONUnder America's political system, a presidential election is won not by the candidate who gets the highest number of votes from Americans overall, but by the one who gets at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes allotted to all 50 states and Washington, DC.
The contest will be decided by a handful of battleground states that could swing either way. Here's a look at the states that matter and how they are faring.
FloridaTrump holds narrow lead
Number of electoral votes: 29, RealClearPolitics polling average as at Nov 4: Biden +2.3
Florida, which Mr Trump’s campaign considers crucial to his re-election hopes, remains undeclared. Mr Trump held a narrow lead in the state after out-performing in one of its most populous counties, Miami-Dade.
In populous Miami-Dade, Mr Trump overperformed his 2016 vote totals, with 512,000-plus votes so far counted in 2020 compared with about 334,000 total four years ago – an enormous improvement.
Florida is a very diverse and competitive state that propelled Mr Donald Trump to victory in 2016 and decided the election for Mr George W. Bush in 2000.
This time, if Mr Trump loses Florida, he'll have a less than a 1 per cent chance of recovering to win the overall election, according to a forecast by polling site FiveThirtyEight.
Pennsylvania
Number of electoral votes: 20
RealClearPolitics polling average as at Nov 4: Biden +1.2
Michigan
Number of electoral votes: 16
RealClearPolitics polling average as at Nov 4: Biden +4.2
Wisconsin
Poll workers check voters identification at in Madison, Wisconsin, on Nov 3, 2020. PHOTO:
Number of electoral votes: 10
RealClearPolitics polling average as at Nov 4: Biden +6.7
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are a trio of "blue wall" battleground states that flipped red and helped Mr Trump win in 2016.
Since then, Mr Biden has gained in all three states. Pennsylvania, where both candidates have campaigned hard in the race's final days, will be one of the most important states this election and is set to play an outsized role once again.
Georgia
Number of electoral votes: 16
RealClearPolitics polling average as at Nov 4: Trump +1
That Georgia, a long-time red state that Mr Trump won by a decent margin of 5.1 percentage points, is now a toss-up state is a sign both of how much Mr Trump has slipped and how blue the state has turned.
Mr Biden likely doesn't need Georgia to win but it would be a surprise if he did, a possible portent of a good night for him.
Iowa
Number of electoral votes: 6
RealClearPolitics polling average as at Nov 4: Trump +2
Iowa swung sharply back to red in 2016, backing Mr Trump by a comfortable margin, but is now a toss-up state. Iowa is also not a must-win for Mr Biden, but if Mr Trump loses the state, it could be a signal that the Republican Party is weakening in the Midwest.
Iowa swung sharply back to red in 2016. PHOTO:
North CarolinaBiden's inching ahead
Number of electoral votes: 15, RealClearPolitics polling average as at Nov 4: Trump +0.2
Mr Biden held a narrow lead in North Carolina, though there are several votes outstanding in the state.
North Carolina has voted Republican all but two times since the 1970s. North Carolina, together with Florida, Georgia and Ohio, are toss-up states Mr Trump all but needs to win re-election.
If Mr Biden wins North Carolina, that might indicate that he'll go on to win other states that Mr Trump needs as well.
OhioBiden takes slight lead
No Republican candidate has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. PHOTO: NYTIMES
Number of electoral votes: 18, RealClearPolitics polling average as at Nov 4: Trump +1.0
Mr Biden held a narrow lead in Ohio as well, though several votes still remain uncounted in the state.
No Republican candidate has ever won the White House without winning Ohio, the state with the track record of voting for every winner since 1944 with a single exception. If Mr Trump loses Ohio, things are likely going badly in the Midwest for him.
Texas
Number of electoral votes: 38
RealClearPolitics polling average as at Nov 4: Trump +1.3
Texas, with its 38 electoral votes, would be a big prize. It's leaned red for decades, but recent demographic shifts have raised Democrats' hopes of turning the state blue.
This year, more Texans voted early than the total number of Texans who voted four years ago, a spike that is leaving observers guessing who benefits from it.
Texas, with its 38 electoral votes, would be a big prize. PHOTO:
Arizona
Number of electoral votes: 11
RealClearPolitics polling average as at Nov 4: Biden +0.9
Arizona has long voted Republican but has shown signs of shifting somewhat blue in recent years, as the proportion of Latino voters in the state has grown.
In 2018, a DemocratMs Krysten Sinemawon a Senate seat for the first time in the state since 1988.